What are the consequences of climate change?
Aria Soeprono
University of California, Los Angeles, Environmental Science Studies & Footprint App User Research
Climate change has severe consequences on local, national, and global scales, but it won't affect everyone the same because some regions are at greater risk than others. Human activities are contributing to climate change, and changing our lifestyles may be the most important way to reverse it.
How does emitting carbon affect climate change?
Carbon dioxide is one of the primary greenhouse gases found in the atmosphere along with water vapors, methane, nitrogen oxides, and fluorinated gases. Greenhouse gases are naturally-occurring and actually allow the life-sustaining characteristics of our earth, such that it is warm enough to support the diversity of plant and animal life that we are familiar with.
However, too much of even a good thing can go awry. As many climate change critics accurate point out, there are natural fluctuations in the global climate on the scale of thousands to millions of years. Yet, due to increased fossil-fuel emissions from human activities, the planet is currently being climate is trending towards an increase in average temperature on a global scale, and has actually gone up by one degree Celcius in the last century (Dunbar).
While that may not seem like a significant number, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that even a 1.5 degree Celcius increase above pre-industrial temperature is likely to have catastrophic effects on the planet (Tollefson). With this in mind, we are well on our way to overshooting this target.
How can climate change be global but affect regions differently at the same time?
There is a correlation between increased fossil fuel burning and an overall increase in global mean temperature, but this does not necessarily mean that every day is warmer than the last. In fact, perhaps surprisingly based on the term “global warming,” climate change predictions include more severe temperatures on both sides of the scale, with simultaneous record highs and lows.
It also varies geographically, where some local areas may experience an overall cooler, drier climate at the same time that other areas are getting much hotter and wetter (Leemans and Eickhout). It makes it harder to predict and adapt for many communities, especially those with less resources.
Despite these local variations, climate change refers to the overall disturbance of our climate system which is increasing the average temperature of the entire globe, something that cannot be measured by a feeling but only by averaging hundreds of temperatures around the world. It represents a shift in the earth’s feedback systems that are designed to stabilize the climate, but have now been altered to such extent as to perpetuate a warming effect (Kashiwase et. al.).
How does the planet usually stabilize the climate and can we rely on that for the future?
In consideration of such exponential carbon emissions that are contributing to this increasing average global temperature, the effect on the climate has actually been reduced because of natural mechanisms the earth has in place to stabilize the climate. However, because the natural buffering systems provided by the soil and the oceans are now saturated with carbon, their use as a buffering system is compromised. (Schwartz; Jiang et. al.). Additionally, there are other indications that we have been sheltered from some climate effects from carbon emissions, that will soon catch up to us.
To elaborate, one clear example of a mechanism that has helped keep the planet cool, but now has the potential to worsen the warming effect, is the feedback of polar glaciers. This is known as the albedo affect of glaciers, where light-color surfaces such as glacier ice are very reflective of light, directing the heat back into the air, keeping the surface cool (Kashiwase et. al.). Climate change threatens to melt the polar ice caps, which would leave many darker surfaces that draw down rather than reflect heat, which could contribute to even more warming.
Similar perpetuating patterns exist with other examples too, including the ability for oceans, soils, and forests to retain carbon and reduce the negative climate impacts. Feedback effects contribute to why scientists are so alarmed about the human-caused aspect of climate change. At the scales in which carbon is being emitted into the air, the climate consequences can be predicted using our knowledge of feedback loops, but only to an extent. For the oceans, their ability to trap carbon dioxide is reduced as they get warmer, which will eventually mean they will release carbon into the atmosphere (Jiang et. al.). Notably, human activities since the Industrial Revolution have increased carbon emissions by 47%, and there is uncertainty of the point of carbon emissions at which stabilizing mechanisms will collapse (NASAa).
Overall, humans are impacting the climate in drastic ways, and although the earth has been bailing us out of the worst effects, that won’t necessarily continue into the future. Going forward, each one of us needs to take action to reduce our individual climate impact, before it is too late.
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Sources:
Dunbar, B. (2015, May 13). What is climate change? Retrieved April 09, 2021, from https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/stories/nasa- knows/what-is-climate-change-k4.html
Jiang, L, Brendan R. Carter, Richard A. Feely, Siv K. Lauvset and Are Olsen. “Surface ocean pH and buffer capacity: past, present and future,” was published in Nature Scientific Reports on December 9, 2019.
Kashiwase, H., Ohshima, K.I., Nihashi, S. et al. Evidence for ice-ocean albedo feedback in the Arctic Ocean shifting to a seasonal ice zone. Sci Rep 7, 8170 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-08467-z
Leemans, R., & Eickhout, B. (2004). Another reason for concern: Regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change. Global Environmental Change, 14(3), 219-228. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.009
NASA. The causes of climate change. (2021, February 08). Retrieved April 09, 2021, from https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/
Schwartz, J. D. (2014, March 4). Soil as Carbon Storehouse: New Weapon in Climate Fight? Retrieved April 8, 2021, from https://e360.yale.edu /features/soil_as_carbon_storehouse_new_weapon_in_climate_fight#:~:text=According%20to%20Rattan%20Lal%2C%20director,to%20air% 20to%20become%20CO2.
Tollefson, J. (2018, October 08). IPCC says limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require drastic action. Retrieved April 09, 2021, from https://www .nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06876-2
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2020, September 08). Overview of greenhouse gases. Retrieved April 02, 2021, from https:///www.epa. gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases
